The Middle East oil crisis is adding a new layer of risk for developers – here’s how to prepare
Written by David Lovato – CPC Development Lending Solutions
April 2026
Australian property developers were already navigating one of the toughest feasibility environments in years before the Middle East crisis escalated. Construction costs were elevated, inflation was sticky and interest rates had moved higher. Now, a global oil shock is adding a new and unpredictable layer of risk – one that developers need to factor into their planning right now.
What the crisis means for construction costs
With global oil supplies disrupted, the most direct impact is on diesel, and for property developers, diesel is everywhere. When diesel prices rise sharply, the cost of almost everything on a construction site moves with it. Diesel hit $3 per litre in March 2026, and the flow-on effects for construction budgets are already being felt.
A significant share of construction materials – structural steel, timber, concrete products, bricks, PVC and plastics – travels considerable distances before it reaches a development site. When fuel costs spike, freight costs follow. The Housing Industry Association (HIA) noted that construction costs have already risen 40% since 2019, and warned that the Middle East conflict is now generating real, immediate fuel and materials cost increases that builders under fixed-price contracts cannot pass on to clients.
It is not just fuel prices driving this. The conflict has forced shipping to be rerouted away from the Persian Gul and war-risk insurance premiums have surged. Several major insurers have cancelled Gulf coverage entirely. These are real cost increases that flow through supply chains over weeks and months, meaning developers who are mid-project or about to commence may not have fully felt the impact yet.
Fixed prices are also a challenge
The HIA has also highlighted a structural risk specific to the way Australian construction works. Residential builders commonly sign fixed-price contracts well before construction begins, sometimes months in advance. Once a contract is signed, the price is locked in. Builders then have to navigate whatever changes occur between signing the contract and completing the home.
For developers, this is a critical reminder: your builder’s exposure to sudden cost movements can quickly become your problem, through delays, stalled projects or renegotiation pressure.
The rate risk
Higher oil prices are feeding directly into inflation. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised the cash rate to 4.10% at its March 2026 meeting – the second consecutive increase – driven by persistent inflation, with the February consumer price index showing annual inflation at 3.7%, still well above the RBA’s 2–3% target band. And critically, that February data predates the worst of the fuel price spike, meaning further pressure is likely still to come through.
For developers, this creates even tighter conditions. Higher rates increase your borrowing costs on land and construction facilities, while also reducing buyer borrowing capacity – which can soften pre-sale demand and dampen the end values your feasibility depends on.
A ceasefire has since been called, which may ease some of the immediate pressure on oil prices and shipping routes. However, the situation remains fragile and the economic damage already done will take time to work through the system. Construction material costs, freight surcharges and insurance premiums do not normalise overnight, and with the RBA already having moved twice, the interest rate environment is unlikely to soften quickly even if the conflict de-escalates further.
What developers should be doing now
None of this makes development impossible. Australia’s structural housing shortage hasn’t gone away, and demand for well-located, appropriately priced projects remains solid. But it does make preparation and discipline more important than ever.
Here are a few practical steps worth considering:
- Revisit your cost plan. If your feasibility was prepared before the oil crisis escalated, it may need refreshing. Build in a buffer for transport cost increases and material surcharges, even if your builder hasn’t flagged them yet.
- Stress-test your finance against a higher-rate scenario. The RBA has now raised rates twice in consecutive meetings. If rates move again, can your project still stack up? Know your break-even point before your lender asks.
- Move on finance sooner rather than later. Lender appetite and terms can shift quickly in volatile conditions. Getting your funding locked in before the situation develops further removes one significant variable from an already uncertain picture.
- Talk to a specialist broker. In the current climate, not all lenders are responding the same way. Some are tightening criteria, while others are actively looking for well-structured deals. Knowing which lenders have appetite for your project type and location right now is genuinely valuable intelligence.
If you want to understand how CPC approaches development finance, our CPC Lending Solutions Development Lending Guide is a good place to start.
If you are planning a project and want to understand how the current environment affects your funding options, contact CPC at info@crowdpropertycapital.com.au or submit an enquiry to discuss how we can help structure the right finance solution for your project.

















